Daily Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The average number of everyday murders per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder data could fail to indicate better countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded over these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, noting that in November the lowest number of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it may hide days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.